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The EPA released today an interim report on its study of Possible Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing On Drinking Water. http://www.epa.gov/hfstudy/. The EPA also scheduled webinars for January 3 and 4 to discuss the interim report.
The EPA was mandated by Congress to conduct this study, and the study will not be completed until 2014. The interim report amounts to a status report on the study but reaches no conclusions.
3 Ocak 2013 Perşembe
Nuclear Plants In Georgia Face Escalating Delays & Cost Overruns
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This is not good news but not surprising. The official monitor for Georgia regulators of the two nuclear plants under construction filed a report warning that the $14 billion Vogtle plants are now 2 to 4 years behind schedule. professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324731304578193880676864240.html.
Such delays will balloon costs that are already $900 million over budget.
Of course, the Georgia plants are being built where consumers are captive and pay everything that the regulated monopolist can convince its state regulators to put into an electricity bill. Indeed, electricity customers in Georgia have been paying for a couple years for the nuclear plants that are now not likely to start operation before a 2018 to 2020 window.
To state the obvious, it is impossible to finance and build nuclear plants in a competitive generation market like Pennsylvania's where customers can choose their electricity supplier.
And the nasty, expensive surprises are just beginning. The truth is that building a safe nuclear plant pushes the limits of human engineering and management.
Such delays will balloon costs that are already $900 million over budget.
Of course, the Georgia plants are being built where consumers are captive and pay everything that the regulated monopolist can convince its state regulators to put into an electricity bill. Indeed, electricity customers in Georgia have been paying for a couple years for the nuclear plants that are now not likely to start operation before a 2018 to 2020 window.
To state the obvious, it is impossible to finance and build nuclear plants in a competitive generation market like Pennsylvania's where customers can choose their electricity supplier.
And the nasty, expensive surprises are just beginning. The truth is that building a safe nuclear plant pushes the limits of human engineering and management.
Counting Down 2012's Top 12 Energy Facts: 6, 5, 4
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The 2012 Countdown continues at number 6 and with heat:
6. This year was a scorcher. In fact, 2012 will be the hottest ever for the contiguous United States, breaking the record set in 1998, and doing so by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That's smashing the record, like hitting 90 home runs in a season.
The heat impacted energy markets, especially the natural gas market, by destroying substantial heating demand. About 51% of US homes heat with natural gas and the record warmth cut gas throughput significantly in the space heating market.
Scientists also increasingly state that the climate has changed already--temperatures and seas are up and rising--and so weather events are changing too. Events predicted by climate models like super droughts and storms dotted 2012, bringing human misery and more than a hundred billion dollars of economic damage.
The record heat and storms of 2012 also shifted moderately public opinion about global warming and the need to address it smartly. The shift was biggest among the 33% of the public that is generally skeptical about science. The combination of this shifting public opinion and President Obama's re-election means that the climate change issue is rising once more.
5. Once the leading climate skeptic and a highly credentialed physicist, Professor Richard Muller and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project conducted a massive study of the world's temperatures records. The results surprised Muller and converted him. Muller concluded that the world warmed 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 250 years and that "essentially all" of the added heat was due to human activity. The work of Muller and his team enjoyed diverse funding, including from the Koch brothers, who have provided massive funding for climate denial activity.
The BEST study and Professor Muller's acceptance of climate science's basic findings about humans causing rising temperatures destroyed the last vestige of non-crank support for climate denial. And so it is the 5th most important energy fact of 2012.
The BEST study plays a similar role to the MIT methane study. Each study crushes false science claims made by ideologues of either the left or right. The battle between ideologues and science will continue in 2013 but hope springs eternal that reason will prevail.
4. Competition between coal and gas for electricity generation market share reached the most intense level ever in 2012. As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012. Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.
What about renewable energy's electricity generation market share in 2012? It actually declined a bit, as a result of a large drop in large hydro production from 2011.
Next year will likely see an increase from 2012 levels of both renewable energy's and coal's market share. The huge 2012 wind build (12,000 megawatts) will operate for a full year in 2013, and wind alone will near 5% of America's electricity production. In 2013, Coal will benefit from higher natural gas prices and so may approach the 40% market share level. In turn, natural gas next year will see a lower market share--possibly 27%.
6. This year was a scorcher. In fact, 2012 will be the hottest ever for the contiguous United States, breaking the record set in 1998, and doing so by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That's smashing the record, like hitting 90 home runs in a season.
The heat impacted energy markets, especially the natural gas market, by destroying substantial heating demand. About 51% of US homes heat with natural gas and the record warmth cut gas throughput significantly in the space heating market.
Scientists also increasingly state that the climate has changed already--temperatures and seas are up and rising--and so weather events are changing too. Events predicted by climate models like super droughts and storms dotted 2012, bringing human misery and more than a hundred billion dollars of economic damage.
The record heat and storms of 2012 also shifted moderately public opinion about global warming and the need to address it smartly. The shift was biggest among the 33% of the public that is generally skeptical about science. The combination of this shifting public opinion and President Obama's re-election means that the climate change issue is rising once more.
5. Once the leading climate skeptic and a highly credentialed physicist, Professor Richard Muller and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project conducted a massive study of the world's temperatures records. The results surprised Muller and converted him. Muller concluded that the world warmed 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 250 years and that "essentially all" of the added heat was due to human activity. The work of Muller and his team enjoyed diverse funding, including from the Koch brothers, who have provided massive funding for climate denial activity.
The BEST study and Professor Muller's acceptance of climate science's basic findings about humans causing rising temperatures destroyed the last vestige of non-crank support for climate denial. And so it is the 5th most important energy fact of 2012.
The BEST study plays a similar role to the MIT methane study. Each study crushes false science claims made by ideologues of either the left or right. The battle between ideologues and science will continue in 2013 but hope springs eternal that reason will prevail.
4. Competition between coal and gas for electricity generation market share reached the most intense level ever in 2012. As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012. Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.
What about renewable energy's electricity generation market share in 2012? It actually declined a bit, as a result of a large drop in large hydro production from 2011.
Next year will likely see an increase from 2012 levels of both renewable energy's and coal's market share. The huge 2012 wind build (12,000 megawatts) will operate for a full year in 2013, and wind alone will near 5% of America's electricity production. In 2013, Coal will benefit from higher natural gas prices and so may approach the 40% market share level. In turn, natural gas next year will see a lower market share--possibly 27%.
The President & Senator Reid Deliver For Wind Power: Wind Has Friends In High Places
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Elections have consequences. And for wind and clean energy the consequences of the 2012 election are good indeed, as I pointed out in the Top 12 Energy Facts (see number 2).
The Wind Production Tax Credit was extended, because boosting wind specifically and clean energy are top priorities of the President of the United States and Senator Reid, the Majority Leader of the United States Senate. For sure the ever bigger, stronger wind industry, clean energy advocates like myself, and environmental groups advocated strongly for this extension. For sure that work built support to push back against the Koch brothers empire, the Wall Street Journal, and Exelon, all of whom battled to kill the wind PTC.
But when it came time to cut the scaled-back Fiscal Cliff deal and to decide what few things were in it and what many things were not, President Obama and Senator Reid had the muscle and the will to use it on behalf of wind power. The two made it happen. Wind has friends in high places.
The Wind Production Tax Credit was extended, because boosting wind specifically and clean energy are top priorities of the President of the United States and Senator Reid, the Majority Leader of the United States Senate. For sure the ever bigger, stronger wind industry, clean energy advocates like myself, and environmental groups advocated strongly for this extension. For sure that work built support to push back against the Koch brothers empire, the Wall Street Journal, and Exelon, all of whom battled to kill the wind PTC.
But when it came time to cut the scaled-back Fiscal Cliff deal and to decide what few things were in it and what many things were not, President Obama and Senator Reid had the muscle and the will to use it on behalf of wind power. The two made it happen. Wind has friends in high places.
The Full Top 12 Energy Facts Of 2012
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Starting in postings on December 26th, I began the 2012 Countdown of the Top 12 Energy Facts. The Countdown continued on December 27-28 and completed on December 31.
A full discussion of each selected fact can be found in the postings on the foregoing dates, and here are the Top 12 Energy Facts of 2012.
12. Nuclear pain in existing and new US nuclear plants threaten even constructed plants, something that few thought possible before 2012. (See December 26th post).
11. Electricity vehicle sales tripled in 2012, moving over 50,000, showing that EVs are far from dead.
10. Gasoline prices set record high for a full year in 2012, proving that booming domestic oil production, and falling US oil consumption will not substantially shape prices from global oil markets. (See December 27th post).
9. The wind industry installed over 12,000 megawatts of new capacity in 2012, an astonishing number, that will generate an amount of electricity equal to about 6 nuclear units the size of Three Mile Island's still operating unit.
8. MIT published a study that documented methane leakage rates from 4,000 shale gas wells during the flowback period and concluded that Professor Howarth's infamous study had overstated leakage by 7 to 30 times.
7. The solar industry set a record for new capacity by building about 3,200 megawatts of new solar, an amount that will generate an amount of electricity equal to 1 nuclear plant. The solar genie is well out of the bottle.
6. Temperatures in the contiguous 48 states set new record highs on average for a full year in 2012. Rising temperatures and seas are ahead and will impact profoundly the energy world. (See December 28th post).
5. The nation's leading climate skeptic, Professor Richard Muller, completed an exhaustive study of temperature records at the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures project in 2012 and said that he now agreed that human beings were causing climate change.
4. Coal and gas competition intensified to historic levels in 2012, as cheap gas caused a sharp increase in gas-fired generation and drop in coal-fired electricity.
3. Natural gas price plummeted to the bargain level of $2.73 per thousand cubic feet on average in 2012 and low gas prices slashed carbon and toxic pollution and fended off a double dip recession. (See December 31st post).
2. In a Presidential race where energy was a leading topic and an area of sharp disagreement, President Obama's victory has 6 big energy implications.
1. An American Triumph: US carbon emissions fall another approximately 4% in 2012 and are down 12% from 2005 levels, thanks to natural gas, energy efficiency, and renewable energy
A full discussion of each selected fact can be found in the postings on the foregoing dates, and here are the Top 12 Energy Facts of 2012.
12. Nuclear pain in existing and new US nuclear plants threaten even constructed plants, something that few thought possible before 2012. (See December 26th post).
11. Electricity vehicle sales tripled in 2012, moving over 50,000, showing that EVs are far from dead.
10. Gasoline prices set record high for a full year in 2012, proving that booming domestic oil production, and falling US oil consumption will not substantially shape prices from global oil markets. (See December 27th post).
9. The wind industry installed over 12,000 megawatts of new capacity in 2012, an astonishing number, that will generate an amount of electricity equal to about 6 nuclear units the size of Three Mile Island's still operating unit.
8. MIT published a study that documented methane leakage rates from 4,000 shale gas wells during the flowback period and concluded that Professor Howarth's infamous study had overstated leakage by 7 to 30 times.
7. The solar industry set a record for new capacity by building about 3,200 megawatts of new solar, an amount that will generate an amount of electricity equal to 1 nuclear plant. The solar genie is well out of the bottle.
6. Temperatures in the contiguous 48 states set new record highs on average for a full year in 2012. Rising temperatures and seas are ahead and will impact profoundly the energy world. (See December 28th post).
5. The nation's leading climate skeptic, Professor Richard Muller, completed an exhaustive study of temperature records at the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures project in 2012 and said that he now agreed that human beings were causing climate change.
4. Coal and gas competition intensified to historic levels in 2012, as cheap gas caused a sharp increase in gas-fired generation and drop in coal-fired electricity.
3. Natural gas price plummeted to the bargain level of $2.73 per thousand cubic feet on average in 2012 and low gas prices slashed carbon and toxic pollution and fended off a double dip recession. (See December 31st post).
2. In a Presidential race where energy was a leading topic and an area of sharp disagreement, President Obama's victory has 6 big energy implications.
1. An American Triumph: US carbon emissions fall another approximately 4% in 2012 and are down 12% from 2005 levels, thanks to natural gas, energy efficiency, and renewable energy
2 Ocak 2013 Çarşamba
Stunning Fact: Natural Gas Ranks Third In US Energy Exports & Petroleum Ranks First
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The shale gas revolution and the backlash to it has made controversial every action and policy involving natural gas, no matter the facts. The debate underway about exporting natural gas is one example.
Yet, a look at America's energy exports shows that natural gas exports have been taking place for many years but total much less than US petroleum and coal exports. Indeed, natural gas accounts for only 15% of US energy exports. www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9230.
In fact, petroleum products account for 57% of US energy exports; coal 27%; and natural gas far behind in third place. While the US exports little crude oil, the strength of US refineries makes the US a petroleum product powerhouse.
As for oil imports to the US that are declining due to growing domestic oil production and declining oil consumption, Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria rank 1 through 5 in top sources. No matter, whether the oil is imported from a friend or foe, the price is globally set. Ouch!
Pricing of natural gas exports to Asia and Europe will reflect those regional market prices that currently are 3 to 4 times US gas prices.
Yet, a look at America's energy exports shows that natural gas exports have been taking place for many years but total much less than US petroleum and coal exports. Indeed, natural gas accounts for only 15% of US energy exports. www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9230.
In fact, petroleum products account for 57% of US energy exports; coal 27%; and natural gas far behind in third place. While the US exports little crude oil, the strength of US refineries makes the US a petroleum product powerhouse.
As for oil imports to the US that are declining due to growing domestic oil production and declining oil consumption, Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria rank 1 through 5 in top sources. No matter, whether the oil is imported from a friend or foe, the price is globally set. Ouch!
Pricing of natural gas exports to Asia and Europe will reflect those regional market prices that currently are 3 to 4 times US gas prices.
Counting Down The 12 Most Important Energy Facts Of 2012: Part 1
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This year has been an extraordinary, largely good news energy year, but with a couple notable exceptions. Over the next 4 days, I will countdown my 12 top energy facts of 2012.
Energy matters to us all, because it shapes, for better or worse, our economy, environment, and national security. Let's get to it.
12. Nuclear pain in old and new plants in 2012 made it clear that nuclear power is not being reborn, but instead may be dying, in the US. The most shocking development was Dominion's announcement that it was closing a nuclear plant that runs well in Wisconsin. That was shocking news because most had assumed that a nuclear plant would run once built for 60 or more years, unless it had major mechanical problems.
Dominion's closure decision proved otherwise. In fact, the Dominion nuclear plant is losing money, despite operating well. It's operating costs of 5 cents per kilowatt-hour make it uneconomic in today's low-priced competitive wholesale electricity markets.
The Dominion decision to close a well-run nuclear plant raises a question: will other sound nuclear plants close early if low wholesale market prices persist? That was not a question in any mind until 2012.
Adding to the nuclear pain is the bad news coming from Georgia, where Southern Company is using its monopoly to finance and build two, new nuclear reactors. Not surprisingly to those with a passing familiarity with the challenges of safe nuclear construction, an official monitoring report filed with regulators in Georgia finds that the plants are already 2 to 4 years behind schedule. Costs are ballooning. But why worry?
Monopoly power means that consumers already have been forced to pay for a couple years for these two nukes that may operate in another 8 years or so. That's right consumers will likely pay for these plants for 10 years before they get the first kilowatt-hour of electricity. It's good to have a monopoly but painful to be served by one.
All this nuclear pain in 2012 is bad energy news, for an economically competitive nuclear industry would be a huge boost for our economy and environment.
11. While nuclear power in the US recedes, sales of electricity vehicles (EV) in the US tripled in 2012, reaching more than 50,000 cars. Rising electric vehicles sales were rooted in new all electric and plug-in models reaching the market and gasoline costing more than ever.
By the end of 2013, the number of electric vehicles on US roads may well exceed the number of CNG vehicles, as progress remains glacial in getting more CNG vehicles operating.
The future of electric vehicles is bright, as long as EV manufacturers keep improving range and driving down costs over the next decade. Indeed, electric vehicles may well be the biggest change in energy markets during the next 10 years. The success of EVs would be bad news for oil but good news for all the fuels that make electricity, power generators, and electricity utilities that deliver the juice. In the energy world, EVs are a chance for renewables, natural gas, nuclear, and coal together to take on oil and grab market share.
Energy matters to us all, because it shapes, for better or worse, our economy, environment, and national security. Let's get to it.
12. Nuclear pain in old and new plants in 2012 made it clear that nuclear power is not being reborn, but instead may be dying, in the US. The most shocking development was Dominion's announcement that it was closing a nuclear plant that runs well in Wisconsin. That was shocking news because most had assumed that a nuclear plant would run once built for 60 or more years, unless it had major mechanical problems.
Dominion's closure decision proved otherwise. In fact, the Dominion nuclear plant is losing money, despite operating well. It's operating costs of 5 cents per kilowatt-hour make it uneconomic in today's low-priced competitive wholesale electricity markets.
The Dominion decision to close a well-run nuclear plant raises a question: will other sound nuclear plants close early if low wholesale market prices persist? That was not a question in any mind until 2012.
Adding to the nuclear pain is the bad news coming from Georgia, where Southern Company is using its monopoly to finance and build two, new nuclear reactors. Not surprisingly to those with a passing familiarity with the challenges of safe nuclear construction, an official monitoring report filed with regulators in Georgia finds that the plants are already 2 to 4 years behind schedule. Costs are ballooning. But why worry?
Monopoly power means that consumers already have been forced to pay for a couple years for these two nukes that may operate in another 8 years or so. That's right consumers will likely pay for these plants for 10 years before they get the first kilowatt-hour of electricity. It's good to have a monopoly but painful to be served by one.
All this nuclear pain in 2012 is bad energy news, for an economically competitive nuclear industry would be a huge boost for our economy and environment.
11. While nuclear power in the US recedes, sales of electricity vehicles (EV) in the US tripled in 2012, reaching more than 50,000 cars. Rising electric vehicles sales were rooted in new all electric and plug-in models reaching the market and gasoline costing more than ever.
By the end of 2013, the number of electric vehicles on US roads may well exceed the number of CNG vehicles, as progress remains glacial in getting more CNG vehicles operating.
The future of electric vehicles is bright, as long as EV manufacturers keep improving range and driving down costs over the next decade. Indeed, electric vehicles may well be the biggest change in energy markets during the next 10 years. The success of EVs would be bad news for oil but good news for all the fuels that make electricity, power generators, and electricity utilities that deliver the juice. In the energy world, EVs are a chance for renewables, natural gas, nuclear, and coal together to take on oil and grab market share.
Counting Down The Top 12 Energy Facts Of 2012: Numbers 10, 9, 8, & 7
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In a year of energy records, possibly the most painful for consumers was record high gasoline prices and that brings us to the 10th top energy fact of 2012.
10. Gasoline will average about $3.63 per gallon in 2012, the highest annual average ever. Many families spent $2,000 to $3,000 during the year to gas one car and that cut purchasing power for other products.
Consequently, high gasoline prices nearly tipped the country back into recession, during the second quarter of this year, just as they had during the spring of 2011. Consumers fought back by cutting miles traveled and buying more fuel efficient vehicles, while more than 50,000 jumped to electric vehicles. Some fleet owners also began moving toward natural gas vehicles, but progress on using natural gas for transportation remains abysmally slow.
As for 2013, EIA projects gasoline to average about $3.40 for the year--another year of high, though not record, gasoline prices. The persistence of high prices, despite substantially higher domestic oil production and falling US oil consumption, painfully reminds that oil is globally priced.
Persistent high oil prices further remind that the only way to cut the threat that oil poses to our economic and national security is to slash its use. Uncle Sam has a lot of conserving and switching to other fuels to do, because oil remains America's top source of energy in 2012. And so high oil prices in 2013 will be a drag on the US economy.
9. While the headlines from the US wind industry focused on layoffs caused by the Congressional delay in extending the wind production tax credit, the wind industry will install about 12,000 megawatts of new capacity in 2012. That is a record, an astonishing number that will produce an amount of electricity in the course of a full year equal to about 6 nuclear plants the size of the Three Mile Island nuclear unit that continues to operate.
Ten years ago, only a few understood that wind power could add to the grid in a single year the equivalent of 6 nuclear units. This year turned that possibility into reality.
Wind's boom is creating political muscle and in key swing states. President Obama's superb campaign team says that the President's strong support of the wind industry helped him to carry by comfortable margins Colorado and Iowa, two states where wind produces as much as 20% of the electricity consumed and puts thousands to work. Bashing wind is increasingly bad politics, because wind energy is important to ever more communities, investors, and workers.
The delay in extension of the production tax credit means that new wind capacity in 2013 will fall but still is likely to be 1,000 to 3,000 megawatts. Wind energy in 2013 will come close to providing 5% of America's electricity. That's stunning!
Declining costs that make it increasingly competitive and strong public support means wind energy is here to stay.
8. Given the seriousness of climate change, resisting false claims about climate science or impacts of various energy sources, no matter whom makes them, is vital. Released in service of the anti-fracking campaign by Howarth, the false claim that shale gas production emits as much or more heat trapping pollution than coal has been debunked by 8 studies done by universities, environmental organizations, and the federal government's energy laboratories. Unfortunately, like some things climate deniers keep repeating regardless of the evidence, Howarth's false assertion that shale gas emits as much or more heat trapping pollution is repeated irresponsibly, misleadingly, and recently in a full page advertisement in the NYT signed by Yoko Ono and others.
Researchers from MIT did in 2012 the best study to date on methane leakage from shale gas wells that is at the heart of the claim that shale gas causes as much damage to the climate as coal. The MIT study is the 8th most important energy fact of 2012, because it eviscerates the key assumption in the Howarth study.
The MIT researchers looked at methane emissions from 4,000 shale wells and found that Howarth had exaggerated emissions by 7 to 30 times. How did Howarth do so?
To start, Howarth used measurements of methane leakage from 5 wells and then just assumed that all shale gas wells vented fully methane during the important flowback period. Looking at 4,000 shale gas wells, the MIT researchers found that 70% of shale gas wells actually use green completions to capture methane during the flowback period; 15% destroyed the methane by flaring; and only 15% vented. The MIT researchers also compiled economic data that showed green completions in 95% of wells quickly paid for themselves.
The truth is that shale gas emits 50% or less of the heat trapping pollution as coal, when both are used to make electricity and that the shale gas boom has played a key role in substantially cutting US carbon emissions. Those who want to stop fracking at all costs will continue to say gas and coal cause the same carbon loading of the atmosphere. Those who want to stop climate change are duty bound to say that gas emits 50% of the carbon of coal and claims to the contrary are false. That is a duty that some fighting climate change are failing badly.
7. The solar genie is out of the bottle. And that is great news for our economy and environment. This year solar alone will install 3,200 megawatts of new electric generating capacity.
That new capacity will produce in 2013 an amount of electricity equal to 1 nuclear plant the size of Three Mile Island.
And during peak hours, the 3,200 megawatts of solar capacity built will provide the equivalent of 2 nuclear plants.
Even if the solar industry just added 3,200 megawatts of new capacity every year for the next ten, solar would matter a great deal to energy markets. But solar's growth will continue. In 2013, the solar industry will add another approximately 4,000 megawatts of new capacity and still higher amounts over the next ten years.
Soon solar will be adding each year the equivalent of 4 to 6 nuclear plants during peak operating hours. That amount of new generation will powerfully reshape power markets, cutting wholesale electricity market peak and annual pricing.
10. Gasoline will average about $3.63 per gallon in 2012, the highest annual average ever. Many families spent $2,000 to $3,000 during the year to gas one car and that cut purchasing power for other products.
Consequently, high gasoline prices nearly tipped the country back into recession, during the second quarter of this year, just as they had during the spring of 2011. Consumers fought back by cutting miles traveled and buying more fuel efficient vehicles, while more than 50,000 jumped to electric vehicles. Some fleet owners also began moving toward natural gas vehicles, but progress on using natural gas for transportation remains abysmally slow.
As for 2013, EIA projects gasoline to average about $3.40 for the year--another year of high, though not record, gasoline prices. The persistence of high prices, despite substantially higher domestic oil production and falling US oil consumption, painfully reminds that oil is globally priced.
Persistent high oil prices further remind that the only way to cut the threat that oil poses to our economic and national security is to slash its use. Uncle Sam has a lot of conserving and switching to other fuels to do, because oil remains America's top source of energy in 2012. And so high oil prices in 2013 will be a drag on the US economy.
9. While the headlines from the US wind industry focused on layoffs caused by the Congressional delay in extending the wind production tax credit, the wind industry will install about 12,000 megawatts of new capacity in 2012. That is a record, an astonishing number that will produce an amount of electricity in the course of a full year equal to about 6 nuclear plants the size of the Three Mile Island nuclear unit that continues to operate.
Ten years ago, only a few understood that wind power could add to the grid in a single year the equivalent of 6 nuclear units. This year turned that possibility into reality.
Wind's boom is creating political muscle and in key swing states. President Obama's superb campaign team says that the President's strong support of the wind industry helped him to carry by comfortable margins Colorado and Iowa, two states where wind produces as much as 20% of the electricity consumed and puts thousands to work. Bashing wind is increasingly bad politics, because wind energy is important to ever more communities, investors, and workers.
The delay in extension of the production tax credit means that new wind capacity in 2013 will fall but still is likely to be 1,000 to 3,000 megawatts. Wind energy in 2013 will come close to providing 5% of America's electricity. That's stunning!
Declining costs that make it increasingly competitive and strong public support means wind energy is here to stay.
8. Given the seriousness of climate change, resisting false claims about climate science or impacts of various energy sources, no matter whom makes them, is vital. Released in service of the anti-fracking campaign by Howarth, the false claim that shale gas production emits as much or more heat trapping pollution than coal has been debunked by 8 studies done by universities, environmental organizations, and the federal government's energy laboratories. Unfortunately, like some things climate deniers keep repeating regardless of the evidence, Howarth's false assertion that shale gas emits as much or more heat trapping pollution is repeated irresponsibly, misleadingly, and recently in a full page advertisement in the NYT signed by Yoko Ono and others.
Researchers from MIT did in 2012 the best study to date on methane leakage from shale gas wells that is at the heart of the claim that shale gas causes as much damage to the climate as coal. The MIT study is the 8th most important energy fact of 2012, because it eviscerates the key assumption in the Howarth study.
The MIT researchers looked at methane emissions from 4,000 shale wells and found that Howarth had exaggerated emissions by 7 to 30 times. How did Howarth do so?
To start, Howarth used measurements of methane leakage from 5 wells and then just assumed that all shale gas wells vented fully methane during the important flowback period. Looking at 4,000 shale gas wells, the MIT researchers found that 70% of shale gas wells actually use green completions to capture methane during the flowback period; 15% destroyed the methane by flaring; and only 15% vented. The MIT researchers also compiled economic data that showed green completions in 95% of wells quickly paid for themselves.
The truth is that shale gas emits 50% or less of the heat trapping pollution as coal, when both are used to make electricity and that the shale gas boom has played a key role in substantially cutting US carbon emissions. Those who want to stop fracking at all costs will continue to say gas and coal cause the same carbon loading of the atmosphere. Those who want to stop climate change are duty bound to say that gas emits 50% of the carbon of coal and claims to the contrary are false. That is a duty that some fighting climate change are failing badly.
7. The solar genie is out of the bottle. And that is great news for our economy and environment. This year solar alone will install 3,200 megawatts of new electric generating capacity.
That new capacity will produce in 2013 an amount of electricity equal to 1 nuclear plant the size of Three Mile Island.
And during peak hours, the 3,200 megawatts of solar capacity built will provide the equivalent of 2 nuclear plants.
Even if the solar industry just added 3,200 megawatts of new capacity every year for the next ten, solar would matter a great deal to energy markets. But solar's growth will continue. In 2013, the solar industry will add another approximately 4,000 megawatts of new capacity and still higher amounts over the next ten years.
Soon solar will be adding each year the equivalent of 4 to 6 nuclear plants during peak operating hours. That amount of new generation will powerfully reshape power markets, cutting wholesale electricity market peak and annual pricing.
Counting Down 2012's Top 12 Energy Facts: 6, 5, 4
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The 2012 Countdown continues at number 6 and with heat:
6. This year was a scorcher. In fact, 2012 will be the hottest ever for the contiguous United States, breaking the record set in 1998, and doing so by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That's smashing the record, like hitting 90 home runs in a season.
The heat impacted energy markets, especially the natural gas market, by destroying substantial heating demand. About 51% of US homes heat with natural gas and the record warmth cut gas throughput significantly in the space heating market.
Scientists also increasingly state that the climate has changed already--temperatures and seas are up and rising--and so weather events are changing too. Events predicted by climate models like super droughts and storms dotted 2012, bringing human misery and more than a hundred billion dollars of economic damage.
The record heat and storms of 2012 also shifted moderately public opinion about global warming and the need to address it smartly. The shift was biggest among the 33% of the public that is generally skeptical about science. The combination of this shifting public opinion and President Obama's re-election means that the climate change issue is rising once more.
5. Once the leading climate skeptic and a highly credentialed physicist, Professor Richard Muller and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project conducted a massive study of the world's temperatures records. The results surprised Muller and converted him. Muller concluded that the world warmed 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 250 years and that "essentially all" of the added heat was due to human activity. The work of Muller and his team enjoyed diverse funding, including from the Koch brothers, who have provided massive funding for climate denial activity.
The BEST study and Professor Muller's acceptance of climate science's basic findings about humans causing rising temperatures destroyed the last vestige of non-crank support for climate denial. And so it is the 5th most important energy fact of 2012.
The BEST study plays a similar role to the MIT methane study. Each study crushes false science claims made by ideologues of either the left or right. The battle between ideologues and science will continue in 2013 but hope springs eternal that reason will prevail.
4. Competition between coal and gas for electricity generation market share reached the most intense level ever in 2012. As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012. Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.
What about renewable energy's electricity generation market share in 2012? It actually declined a bit, as a result of a large drop in large hydro production from 2011.
Next year will likely see an increase from 2012 levels of both renewable energy's and coal's market share. The huge 2012 wind build (12,000 megawatts) will operate for a full year in 2013, and wind alone will near 5% of America's electricity production. In 2013, Coal will benefit from higher natural gas prices and so may approach the 40% market share level. In turn, natural gas next year will see a lower market share--possibly 27%.
6. This year was a scorcher. In fact, 2012 will be the hottest ever for the contiguous United States, breaking the record set in 1998, and doing so by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That's smashing the record, like hitting 90 home runs in a season.
The heat impacted energy markets, especially the natural gas market, by destroying substantial heating demand. About 51% of US homes heat with natural gas and the record warmth cut gas throughput significantly in the space heating market.
Scientists also increasingly state that the climate has changed already--temperatures and seas are up and rising--and so weather events are changing too. Events predicted by climate models like super droughts and storms dotted 2012, bringing human misery and more than a hundred billion dollars of economic damage.
The record heat and storms of 2012 also shifted moderately public opinion about global warming and the need to address it smartly. The shift was biggest among the 33% of the public that is generally skeptical about science. The combination of this shifting public opinion and President Obama's re-election means that the climate change issue is rising once more.
5. Once the leading climate skeptic and a highly credentialed physicist, Professor Richard Muller and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project conducted a massive study of the world's temperatures records. The results surprised Muller and converted him. Muller concluded that the world warmed 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 250 years and that "essentially all" of the added heat was due to human activity. The work of Muller and his team enjoyed diverse funding, including from the Koch brothers, who have provided massive funding for climate denial activity.
The BEST study and Professor Muller's acceptance of climate science's basic findings about humans causing rising temperatures destroyed the last vestige of non-crank support for climate denial. And so it is the 5th most important energy fact of 2012.
The BEST study plays a similar role to the MIT methane study. Each study crushes false science claims made by ideologues of either the left or right. The battle between ideologues and science will continue in 2013 but hope springs eternal that reason will prevail.
4. Competition between coal and gas for electricity generation market share reached the most intense level ever in 2012. As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012. Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.
What about renewable energy's electricity generation market share in 2012? It actually declined a bit, as a result of a large drop in large hydro production from 2011.
Next year will likely see an increase from 2012 levels of both renewable energy's and coal's market share. The huge 2012 wind build (12,000 megawatts) will operate for a full year in 2013, and wind alone will near 5% of America's electricity production. In 2013, Coal will benefit from higher natural gas prices and so may approach the 40% market share level. In turn, natural gas next year will see a lower market share--possibly 27%.
Promised Land Fracks Or Blows It: My Review
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Promised Land had an opportunity to be a great movie but blows it.
Promised Land blows it, because it could have challenged and prodded all to think about what they know for sure that just isn't so. It could have caused those who are either for, against, or unsure about "fracking" to reflect and reach out.
Instead of making everyone in the audience question some part of their beliefs or knowledge, Promised Land takes the easy path and will polarize. It is a simple tale of bad and good guys competing for the affections of a beautiful lady. Yet, "fracking"--its tensions, contradictions, especially the good people involved on all sides--offers dramatic, powerful material and requires better.
Surprising probably nobody, the gas industry is the baddest bad guy, followed closely by corrupt elected officials whom the industry bribes, and then landowners who sign drilling leases. This movie sends the horribly unfair, false message that those who sign drilling leases typically are greedy, stupid, and waste their gains on conspicuous consumption like sports cars. And so Promised Land becomes grating, arrogant, elitist especially since this bad sermon is coming from the fabulously wealthy Matt Damon and his Persian Gulf investors.
Also, probably surprising nobody, the good guys in this movie are those who won't lease their land for gas drilling and who campaign successfully to ban drilling in their town. The three best of the good guys are a sage teacher and landowner, who is convinced gas drilling is unsafe and leads his community to oppose it; a struggling farmer who had a relative killed in Iraq and who explains why foreign oil is no reason to drill here; and a gas industry employee who repents his evil ways.
Damon plays the repentant landsman, who goes from taking pride in selling drilling leases for well below market value to making a public statement that insures the defeat of gas drilling in Promised Land. For doing so, he is fired by the evil gas company but wins the beautiful, spunky lady.
In interviews, Damon disingenuously insists that the film is even handed and that the film not showing the result of the community vote on gas drilling proves it is so. Really? Damon must think that his viewers are fools and perhaps making movies is "just a job," the dismissive phrase employed more than a few times to deride or excuse earning a living in the gas industry.
Rest assured, nobody will leave Promised Land wondering whether or not the town voted down gas drilling.
Those who hate natural gas production will find Promised Land safe, comfortable but not deep. Also, the movie's Abu Dhabi financiers will be pleased, as the movie contains a vignette dismissing the idea that US gas could decrease oil imports and generally assails fracking.
Unconventional oil and gas production threatens the power of oil dictators in the Middle East and Putin's Russia that has a near monopoly on supplying gas to Europe. These oil and gas oligarchs, therefore, use their bulging purses to assault shale gas production that could mean new gas production in many countries and a lessening of their geopolitical power. And so during my time as Secretary of Pennsylvania's Department of Environmental Protection, it was no surprise that I was interviewed by a Russian TV station touring the US to highlight the accidents and spills of shale gas production.
Though the Abu Dhabi investors get their money's worth, Promised Land insults the many millions who work in or with the US gas industry, lease their land, or receive royalty checks.
In Promised Land, everything is a clear choice between good or bad. There are no shades of grey. I wish only that our real energy choices were so simple and perfect.
In Promised Land, gas drilling only destroys farms and never fends off a farm foreclosure. There are no moms, dads, sons, daughters who move from unemployment to $50,00 a year drilling jobs. And no gas industry workers who are honest, work hard to be safe, and are proud to provide low-cost, domestic energy that emits less carbon, mercury, soot, and arsenic than coal and oil do.
In Promised Land, there are no troubling facts like 51% of America's homes heat with natural gas or millions of poor struggling this winter to pay their heating bills and some being shut-off and in the cold. Heat is a necessity of life and producing more gas means more affordable bills, while producing less insures higher gas and electricity bills. Who are the good or bad guys? Those who produce more gas or those who want to slash gas production to stop development impacts?
In Promised Land, there are no old coal-fired power plants that emit soot and other toxic pollution that substantially cause hundreds of thousands of illnesses and 34,000 premature deaths every year. Is someone doing the right or wrong thing, if his or her decisions cause local environmental impacts but make possible more electricity to be produced by natural gas power plants that emit no soot, mercury, and other toxic air pollution, as well as half of the carbon emissions of a coal plant?
Is someone doing right or wrong, if his or her leasing or work means land disturbance, inevitably some spills and accidents, but lots of cheap gas that displaces coal and oil, as has been happening in America, with coal-fired generation dropping from 48% in 2008 to 37% in 2012.
In Promised Land, there is no recognition that 34% of America's total energy comes from oil, 19% from coal, 26% from natural gas, 10% from nuclear power, 11% from all types of renewable energy, including large hydro and corn ethanol. There is no recognition that solar and wind provide 3%, though both are growing rapidly. There is no understanding that water pollution from corn ethanol or the damage done to river systems by big hydro dwarfs the harm done to water resources by gas production.
In Promised Land, ignorance is bliss.
Promised Land blew it, not because gas drilling has zero impacts or risk. It has impact and risks that can be higher or lower but never zero. Poor gas drilling did cause methane to migrate in Dimock, Pennsylvania to 18 private water wells. There are spills, accidents, flaring. Gas drilling is industrial activity, with impacts on the environment, that must be strongly regulated.
And even when it is strongly regulated, gas drilling will damage some lives. That's one reason why gas companies, if they won't do it themselves, must be made to compensate families fully when problems do occur. It's also a reason why gas production must be reasonably taxed to provide revenue that can make communities better for all.
But the brutal truth today is that all our energy choices have strengths and weaknesses. Our real energy choices are far from all good or all bad.
Using more natural gas has slashed US carbon emissions and toxic air pollution--lead, mercury, arsenic, soot--in the nation's air by displacing large amounts of coal and oil. That cleaner air saves thousands of lives every year. And no nation in the world has cut its carbon emissions more than the US since 2006. Indeed, thanks in substantial part to shale gas, US carbon emissions are back to 1995 levels and fell about another 4% in 2012.
Is gas production safer or riskier than nuclear power? Most of the time one could say nuclear power is safer and cleaner, even though there is still no place to dispose of safely and permanently the most toxic industrial waste ever created.
Yet, I live in the Three Mile Island evacuation area and have one perspective. People living within 50 miles of Fukushima have still another perspective, and how could they not wish they had in their community a gas plant, a coal plant, anything other than the 6 nuclear units that were there, when the earthquake and tsunami hit in 2011?
At my home, I buy 100% wind power for its electricity (please go to www.choosepawind.com), heat with a high efficiency gas furnace, and drive a high-mileage, gasoline-hybrid vehicle. In my public advocacy, I strongly support more renewable energy and energy efficiency. I also support regulated strongly and reasonably taxed gas production.
Though I strive to limit the health and environmental impacts of my energy use, my energy choices and behavior have negative environmental and health impacts. With the possible exception of my wonderful sister and her family, who have installed solar panels on her home and drive a Volt, when it comes to energy, nobody is really righteous.
Promised Land blew it by not educating the public about our real energy choices and the difficult, even wrenching decisions they create for every American. It blew it by not recognizing that good people are on all sides of the fracking wars.
No matter where they stand on fracking, good people are struggling to know and to do the right thing for their families, communities, and America.
Despite blowing it, Promised Land does have two, positive qualities. It serves as one more powerful reminder not to sign drilling leases or other important legal documents without good advice.
Promised Land also is not a documentary and does not pretend to be. It's just a movie, made by people just doing a job, entertainment that bashes gas drilling and those involved.
Promised Land blows it, because it could have challenged and prodded all to think about what they know for sure that just isn't so. It could have caused those who are either for, against, or unsure about "fracking" to reflect and reach out.
Instead of making everyone in the audience question some part of their beliefs or knowledge, Promised Land takes the easy path and will polarize. It is a simple tale of bad and good guys competing for the affections of a beautiful lady. Yet, "fracking"--its tensions, contradictions, especially the good people involved on all sides--offers dramatic, powerful material and requires better.
Surprising probably nobody, the gas industry is the baddest bad guy, followed closely by corrupt elected officials whom the industry bribes, and then landowners who sign drilling leases. This movie sends the horribly unfair, false message that those who sign drilling leases typically are greedy, stupid, and waste their gains on conspicuous consumption like sports cars. And so Promised Land becomes grating, arrogant, elitist especially since this bad sermon is coming from the fabulously wealthy Matt Damon and his Persian Gulf investors.
Also, probably surprising nobody, the good guys in this movie are those who won't lease their land for gas drilling and who campaign successfully to ban drilling in their town. The three best of the good guys are a sage teacher and landowner, who is convinced gas drilling is unsafe and leads his community to oppose it; a struggling farmer who had a relative killed in Iraq and who explains why foreign oil is no reason to drill here; and a gas industry employee who repents his evil ways.
Damon plays the repentant landsman, who goes from taking pride in selling drilling leases for well below market value to making a public statement that insures the defeat of gas drilling in Promised Land. For doing so, he is fired by the evil gas company but wins the beautiful, spunky lady.
In interviews, Damon disingenuously insists that the film is even handed and that the film not showing the result of the community vote on gas drilling proves it is so. Really? Damon must think that his viewers are fools and perhaps making movies is "just a job," the dismissive phrase employed more than a few times to deride or excuse earning a living in the gas industry.
Rest assured, nobody will leave Promised Land wondering whether or not the town voted down gas drilling.
Those who hate natural gas production will find Promised Land safe, comfortable but not deep. Also, the movie's Abu Dhabi financiers will be pleased, as the movie contains a vignette dismissing the idea that US gas could decrease oil imports and generally assails fracking.
Unconventional oil and gas production threatens the power of oil dictators in the Middle East and Putin's Russia that has a near monopoly on supplying gas to Europe. These oil and gas oligarchs, therefore, use their bulging purses to assault shale gas production that could mean new gas production in many countries and a lessening of their geopolitical power. And so during my time as Secretary of Pennsylvania's Department of Environmental Protection, it was no surprise that I was interviewed by a Russian TV station touring the US to highlight the accidents and spills of shale gas production.
Though the Abu Dhabi investors get their money's worth, Promised Land insults the many millions who work in or with the US gas industry, lease their land, or receive royalty checks.
In Promised Land, everything is a clear choice between good or bad. There are no shades of grey. I wish only that our real energy choices were so simple and perfect.
In Promised Land, gas drilling only destroys farms and never fends off a farm foreclosure. There are no moms, dads, sons, daughters who move from unemployment to $50,00 a year drilling jobs. And no gas industry workers who are honest, work hard to be safe, and are proud to provide low-cost, domestic energy that emits less carbon, mercury, soot, and arsenic than coal and oil do.
In Promised Land, there are no troubling facts like 51% of America's homes heat with natural gas or millions of poor struggling this winter to pay their heating bills and some being shut-off and in the cold. Heat is a necessity of life and producing more gas means more affordable bills, while producing less insures higher gas and electricity bills. Who are the good or bad guys? Those who produce more gas or those who want to slash gas production to stop development impacts?
In Promised Land, there are no old coal-fired power plants that emit soot and other toxic pollution that substantially cause hundreds of thousands of illnesses and 34,000 premature deaths every year. Is someone doing the right or wrong thing, if his or her decisions cause local environmental impacts but make possible more electricity to be produced by natural gas power plants that emit no soot, mercury, and other toxic air pollution, as well as half of the carbon emissions of a coal plant?
Is someone doing right or wrong, if his or her leasing or work means land disturbance, inevitably some spills and accidents, but lots of cheap gas that displaces coal and oil, as has been happening in America, with coal-fired generation dropping from 48% in 2008 to 37% in 2012.
In Promised Land, there is no recognition that 34% of America's total energy comes from oil, 19% from coal, 26% from natural gas, 10% from nuclear power, 11% from all types of renewable energy, including large hydro and corn ethanol. There is no recognition that solar and wind provide 3%, though both are growing rapidly. There is no understanding that water pollution from corn ethanol or the damage done to river systems by big hydro dwarfs the harm done to water resources by gas production.
In Promised Land, ignorance is bliss.
Promised Land blew it, not because gas drilling has zero impacts or risk. It has impact and risks that can be higher or lower but never zero. Poor gas drilling did cause methane to migrate in Dimock, Pennsylvania to 18 private water wells. There are spills, accidents, flaring. Gas drilling is industrial activity, with impacts on the environment, that must be strongly regulated.
And even when it is strongly regulated, gas drilling will damage some lives. That's one reason why gas companies, if they won't do it themselves, must be made to compensate families fully when problems do occur. It's also a reason why gas production must be reasonably taxed to provide revenue that can make communities better for all.
But the brutal truth today is that all our energy choices have strengths and weaknesses. Our real energy choices are far from all good or all bad.
Using more natural gas has slashed US carbon emissions and toxic air pollution--lead, mercury, arsenic, soot--in the nation's air by displacing large amounts of coal and oil. That cleaner air saves thousands of lives every year. And no nation in the world has cut its carbon emissions more than the US since 2006. Indeed, thanks in substantial part to shale gas, US carbon emissions are back to 1995 levels and fell about another 4% in 2012.
Is gas production safer or riskier than nuclear power? Most of the time one could say nuclear power is safer and cleaner, even though there is still no place to dispose of safely and permanently the most toxic industrial waste ever created.
Yet, I live in the Three Mile Island evacuation area and have one perspective. People living within 50 miles of Fukushima have still another perspective, and how could they not wish they had in their community a gas plant, a coal plant, anything other than the 6 nuclear units that were there, when the earthquake and tsunami hit in 2011?
At my home, I buy 100% wind power for its electricity (please go to www.choosepawind.com), heat with a high efficiency gas furnace, and drive a high-mileage, gasoline-hybrid vehicle. In my public advocacy, I strongly support more renewable energy and energy efficiency. I also support regulated strongly and reasonably taxed gas production.
Though I strive to limit the health and environmental impacts of my energy use, my energy choices and behavior have negative environmental and health impacts. With the possible exception of my wonderful sister and her family, who have installed solar panels on her home and drive a Volt, when it comes to energy, nobody is really righteous.
Promised Land blew it by not educating the public about our real energy choices and the difficult, even wrenching decisions they create for every American. It blew it by not recognizing that good people are on all sides of the fracking wars.
No matter where they stand on fracking, good people are struggling to know and to do the right thing for their families, communities, and America.
Despite blowing it, Promised Land does have two, positive qualities. It serves as one more powerful reminder not to sign drilling leases or other important legal documents without good advice.
Promised Land also is not a documentary and does not pretend to be. It's just a movie, made by people just doing a job, entertainment that bashes gas drilling and those involved.
1 Ocak 2013 Salı
Counting Down 2012's Top 12 Energy Facts: 6, 5, 4
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The 2012 Countdown continues at number 6 and with heat:
6. This year was a scorcher. In fact, 2012 will be the hottest ever for the contiguous United States, breaking the record set in 1998, and doing so by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That's smashing the record, like hitting 90 home runs in a season.
The heat impacted energy markets, especially the natural gas market, by destroying substantial heating demand. About 51% of US homes heat with natural gas and the record warmth cut gas throughput significantly in the space heating market.
Scientists also increasingly state that the climate has changed already--temperatures and seas are up and rising--and so weather events are changing too. Events predicted by climate models like super droughts and storms dotted 2012, bringing human misery and more than a hundred billion dollars of economic damage.
The record heat and storms of 2012 also shifted moderately public opinion about global warming and the need to address it smartly. The shift was biggest among the 33% of the public that is generally skeptical about science. The combination of this shifting public opinion and President Obama's re-election means that the climate change issue is rising once more.
5. Once the leading climate skeptic and a highly credentialed physicist, Professor Richard Muller and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project conducted a massive study of the world's temperatures records. The results surprised Muller and converted him. Muller concluded that the world warmed 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 250 years and that "essentially all" of the added heat was due to human activity. The work of Muller and his team enjoyed diverse funding, including from the Koch brothers, who have provided massive funding for climate denial activity.
The BEST study and Professor Muller's acceptance of climate science's basic findings about humans causing rising temperatures destroyed the last vestige of non-crank support for climate denial. And so it is the 5th most important energy fact of 2012.
The BEST study plays a similar role to the MIT methane study. Each study crushes false science claims made by ideologues of either the left or right. The battle between ideologues and science will continue in 2013 but hope springs eternal that reason will prevail.
4. Competition between coal and gas for electricity generation market share reached the most intense level ever in 2012. As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012. Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.
What about renewable energy's electricity generation market share in 2012? It actually declined a bit, as a result of a large drop in large hydro production from 2011.
Next year will likely see an increase from 2012 levels of both renewable energy's and coal's market share. The huge 2012 wind build (12,000 megawatts) will operate for a full year in 2013, and wind alone will near 5% of America's electricity production. In 2013, Coal will benefit from higher natural gas prices and so may approach the 40% market share level. In turn, natural gas next year will see a lower market share--possibly 27%.
6. This year was a scorcher. In fact, 2012 will be the hottest ever for the contiguous United States, breaking the record set in 1998, and doing so by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That's smashing the record, like hitting 90 home runs in a season.
The heat impacted energy markets, especially the natural gas market, by destroying substantial heating demand. About 51% of US homes heat with natural gas and the record warmth cut gas throughput significantly in the space heating market.
Scientists also increasingly state that the climate has changed already--temperatures and seas are up and rising--and so weather events are changing too. Events predicted by climate models like super droughts and storms dotted 2012, bringing human misery and more than a hundred billion dollars of economic damage.
The record heat and storms of 2012 also shifted moderately public opinion about global warming and the need to address it smartly. The shift was biggest among the 33% of the public that is generally skeptical about science. The combination of this shifting public opinion and President Obama's re-election means that the climate change issue is rising once more.
5. Once the leading climate skeptic and a highly credentialed physicist, Professor Richard Muller and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project conducted a massive study of the world's temperatures records. The results surprised Muller and converted him. Muller concluded that the world warmed 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 250 years and that "essentially all" of the added heat was due to human activity. The work of Muller and his team enjoyed diverse funding, including from the Koch brothers, who have provided massive funding for climate denial activity.
The BEST study and Professor Muller's acceptance of climate science's basic findings about humans causing rising temperatures destroyed the last vestige of non-crank support for climate denial. And so it is the 5th most important energy fact of 2012.
The BEST study plays a similar role to the MIT methane study. Each study crushes false science claims made by ideologues of either the left or right. The battle between ideologues and science will continue in 2013 but hope springs eternal that reason will prevail.
4. Competition between coal and gas for electricity generation market share reached the most intense level ever in 2012. As a result of increasing use of gas to make electricity, the market share of coal has declined from 48% in 2008 to 43% in 2011 and likely 37% in 2012. Natural gas will capture approximately 30% of electric generation market share this year, sharply up from 12% in 1990 and 16% in 2000.
What about renewable energy's electricity generation market share in 2012? It actually declined a bit, as a result of a large drop in large hydro production from 2011.
Next year will likely see an increase from 2012 levels of both renewable energy's and coal's market share. The huge 2012 wind build (12,000 megawatts) will operate for a full year in 2013, and wind alone will near 5% of America's electricity production. In 2013, Coal will benefit from higher natural gas prices and so may approach the 40% market share level. In turn, natural gas next year will see a lower market share--possibly 27%.
Wind PTC Reportedly In Senate Fiscal Cliff Tax Bill
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In his press conference, the President made reference to "tax credits for clean energy companies," when discussing what is in the emerging Senate "Fiscal Cliff" tax bill. Others too are reporting on the wind PTC. http://rollcall.com/news/obama_suggests_cliff_deal_would_extend_wind_tax_credit-220432-1.html?pos=htmbtxt.
Though this tax deal is not baked yet even in the Senate, let alone in the leaderless House of Representatives, the wind industry is finding out that it is good to have the President of the United States and the Senate Majority leader really on your side.
Make no mistake about it, President Obama's tenacity for supporting wind specifically was strengthened by his personal campaign experience in Iowa and Colorado this fall. In both states, the wind PTC and wind jobs issue helped the President and hurt Governor Romney.
The wind industry built 12,000 megawatts of new capacity in 2012, enough capacity to generate an amount of electricity equal to 6 nuclear plants the size of the still operating Three Mile Island nuclear unit. What happens with wind and the wind PTC in the next few days or weeks will have major impacts on power markets in 2013.
More to follow soon on this key story.
Though this tax deal is not baked yet even in the Senate, let alone in the leaderless House of Representatives, the wind industry is finding out that it is good to have the President of the United States and the Senate Majority leader really on your side.
Make no mistake about it, President Obama's tenacity for supporting wind specifically was strengthened by his personal campaign experience in Iowa and Colorado this fall. In both states, the wind PTC and wind jobs issue helped the President and hurt Governor Romney.
The wind industry built 12,000 megawatts of new capacity in 2012, enough capacity to generate an amount of electricity equal to 6 nuclear plants the size of the still operating Three Mile Island nuclear unit. What happens with wind and the wind PTC in the next few days or weeks will have major impacts on power markets in 2013.
More to follow soon on this key story.
Senate Wind Extension Shows How Much America Is Changing: PTC Is Big News In Colorado
To contact us Click HERE
The Fox News affiliate in Denver, Colorado gave prominence to the inclusion of the wind PTC in its reporting of the Senate's Fiscal Cliff bill and therein lies a window into how fast America changes.
kdvr.com/2012/12/31/obama-says-deal-to-avert-fiscal-cliff-appears-to-be-in-sight/.
KDVR reported that the Fiscal Cliff bill extended the wind PTC and said doing so was "an important piece for Colorado's new energy economy." President Obama spent a lot of time in Colorado and Iowa in 2013 and saw how important wind power is to keeping the lights on and employing people in those states. He saw first hand "Colorado's new energy economy."
The President also quickly understood that supporting wind energy helped him politically in the key swing state of Colorado and that Governor Romney's opposition to the wind PTC hurt him. America changes quickly, and wind power more than doubled in the President's first term to become a very big business with support and clout in many communities across our land.
In 2013, don't mess with wind in Colorado, Iowa, and many more places.
kdvr.com/2012/12/31/obama-says-deal-to-avert-fiscal-cliff-appears-to-be-in-sight/.
KDVR reported that the Fiscal Cliff bill extended the wind PTC and said doing so was "an important piece for Colorado's new energy economy." President Obama spent a lot of time in Colorado and Iowa in 2013 and saw how important wind power is to keeping the lights on and employing people in those states. He saw first hand "Colorado's new energy economy."
The President also quickly understood that supporting wind energy helped him politically in the key swing state of Colorado and that Governor Romney's opposition to the wind PTC hurt him. America changes quickly, and wind power more than doubled in the President's first term to become a very big business with support and clout in many communities across our land.
In 2013, don't mess with wind in Colorado, Iowa, and many more places.
Joe Paterno's New Ranking - All-Time Wins
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Having had 111 wins wiped out by the NCAA (all wins from 1998 through 2011 vacated by NCAA on July 23, 2012), the new rankings for the all-time winningest coaches in NCAA Division I college football history look like this:
Having had 111 wins wiped out by the NCAA (all wins from 1998 through 2011 vacated by NCAA on July 23, 2012), the new rankings for the all-time winningest coaches in NCAA Division I college football history look like this: |
| The New Leader - Bobby Bowden 377 |
 |
| JoePa Never Could Beat Bear Bryant - 323 |
 |
| Pop Warner (not Curt) - 319 |
 |
| Amos Alonzo Stagg - 314 |
 |
| On the Day He Set the New Record with Win 409 - Now at 298 |
Adam Lanza's Motive? Mother In Process of Having Him Committed
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Adam Lanza Reportedly Enraged That Mother Was Seeking to Have Him Committed
Late last week, I read that the police had a strong idea as to the motive behind the insane and heartbreaking Sandy Hook shootings committed by Adam Lanza. Today, via the HuffPost, that possible motive was disclosed:
"From what I'vebeen told, Adam was aware of her petitioning the court for conservatorship and(her) plans to have him committed," said Joshua Flashman, 25, who grew upnot far from where the shooting took place. "Adam was apparently very upsetabout this. He thought she just wanted to send him away. From what Iunderstand, he was really, really angry. I think this could have been it, whatset him off."
The HuffPost article contained some other interesting information I had not heard before:
"Nancy Lanza reportedly volunteered with kindergartners at the school for several years. Flashman said that Adam "believed she cared more for the children than she did for him." On the day of the massacre, Nancy was Adam's first victim. Flashman told Fox News that Nancy was also good friends with the school's principal and psychologist, both of whom were killed during the incident.
Lanza had also reportedly cut off communication with his father, Peter, in 2010."
I have a few thoughts on this.
One, this motive "makes sense", and that helps me because I need to make sense out of this insanity.
Two, Nancy Lanza should have taken all of her guns out of the house if she knew her son was very angry about the possibility of being committed. It should not have been beyond the pale of her reasoning to expect that her son might respond violently, if to no one else other than herself, if he was indeed very angry about her plans. The fact that she apparently believed he was mentally ill to such an extent that she was willing to give up her custodial role, one that she by all accounts took very seriously, only buttresses my belief in this regard.
Reportedly, Adam Lanza had never been violent, despite his problems, so doesn't it make sense that he was demonstrating some significant change of behavior that caused her to seek his commitment? And, doesn't it make sense that maybe, given his habit of locking himself in a windowless room in the basement of their home playing "Call of Duty" from morning to night, that the change she saw that caused her to seek his commitment was a shift towards violent tendencies? If so, and Nancy Lanza saw the anger of her her theretofore placid son further escalate once he learned that she was seeking to have him committed, should she not have removed her guns from their household? Isn't that what you would do? Don't you think this idea crossed her mind, and maybe more than once? Did Nancy Lanza's apparent "survivalist" agenda subsume any instinct she had to remove her guns from the house? Can such "fanaticism" ever be a good and rationale thing?
Finally, the murderer had spoken to neither his Father nor his Brother since 2010. For a boy to be estranged from his Father and older Brother suggests the boy may have a very deep problem, particularly where, as here, they appear to be "normal" while he was clearly not. Meanwhile, his Mother taught this obviously troubled boy/man how to master firearms. Say what you want, but had she, say, taught him how to master fishing, cooking, flying RC airplanes or to drive a race car, maybe this tragedy would have been avoided.
John A. Gallagher isan employment lawyer who represents employees in Pennsylvania.ClickHere if you have questions about any aspect of employment law, fromwrongful termination, to wage and overtime claims, to discrimination and retaliationlaws, to Family and Medical Leave…
ClickHere if you have questions about any aspect of PennsylvaniaUnemployment Law, from willful misconduct, to voluntary quit, to RefereeHearings, to severance issues…
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Adam Lanza Reportedly Enraged That Mother Was Seeking to Have Him Committed
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| Nancy Lanza |
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| Adam Lanza |
The HuffPost article contained some other interesting information I had not heard before:
"Nancy Lanza reportedly volunteered with kindergartners at the school for several years. Flashman said that Adam "believed she cared more for the children than she did for him." On the day of the massacre, Nancy was Adam's first victim. Flashman told Fox News that Nancy was also good friends with the school's principal and psychologist, both of whom were killed during the incident.
Lanza had also reportedly cut off communication with his father, Peter, in 2010."
I have a few thoughts on this.
One, this motive "makes sense", and that helps me because I need to make sense out of this insanity.
Two, Nancy Lanza should have taken all of her guns out of the house if she knew her son was very angry about the possibility of being committed. It should not have been beyond the pale of her reasoning to expect that her son might respond violently, if to no one else other than herself, if he was indeed very angry about her plans. The fact that she apparently believed he was mentally ill to such an extent that she was willing to give up her custodial role, one that she by all accounts took very seriously, only buttresses my belief in this regard.
Reportedly, Adam Lanza had never been violent, despite his problems, so doesn't it make sense that he was demonstrating some significant change of behavior that caused her to seek his commitment? And, doesn't it make sense that maybe, given his habit of locking himself in a windowless room in the basement of their home playing "Call of Duty" from morning to night, that the change she saw that caused her to seek his commitment was a shift towards violent tendencies? If so, and Nancy Lanza saw the anger of her her theretofore placid son further escalate once he learned that she was seeking to have him committed, should she not have removed her guns from their household? Isn't that what you would do? Don't you think this idea crossed her mind, and maybe more than once? Did Nancy Lanza's apparent "survivalist" agenda subsume any instinct she had to remove her guns from the house? Can such "fanaticism" ever be a good and rationale thing?
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| What Happened to This Child... |
Finally, the murderer had spoken to neither his Father nor his Brother since 2010. For a boy to be estranged from his Father and older Brother suggests the boy may have a very deep problem, particularly where, as here, they appear to be "normal" while he was clearly not. Meanwhile, his Mother taught this obviously troubled boy/man how to master firearms. Say what you want, but had she, say, taught him how to master fishing, cooking, flying RC airplanes or to drive a race car, maybe this tragedy would have been avoided.
John A. Gallagher isan employment lawyer who represents employees in Pennsylvania.ClickHere if you have questions about any aspect of employment law, fromwrongful termination, to wage and overtime claims, to discrimination and retaliationlaws, to Family and Medical Leave…
ClickHere if you have questions about any aspect of PennsylvaniaUnemployment Law, from willful misconduct, to voluntary quit, to RefereeHearings, to severance issues…
Thanks for checking in with us.
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